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Downstream Natural Gas Vision Details

Business as Usual Emissions

Business as usual GHG emissions are based on projections contained within the NEB Energy Future Report. Details on specific data used to generate the business as usual scenario for each sub-sector are given in the sections below.

For all sub-sectors, the NEB Energy Future Report assumes that both process (e.g., building codes, social practices) and device (equipment) efficiency improvements will lead to reductions in future fuel consumption. These assumptions are high-level and have not been disaggregated to the extent necessary to remove from the business as usual cases; therefore, the efficiency assumptions have been retained in the sub-sectoral business as usual cases. This may cause some Vision Statement technology efficiency gains to lead to smaller reductions in natural gas consumption than would be the case if the Report’s efficiency assumptions were removed; however, it should also result in conservative emissions reductions projections.

Fuel and electricity consumption values were converted to life-cycle (upstream production* and combustion) GHG and CAC emissions using emission factors from the following sources:

• Natural Resources Canada’s GHGenius v4.03a model for lifecycle assessment of transportation fuels. 10 GHGenius was also used for CAC emission factors for various equipment, such as building heaters and industrial boilers;

• Environment Canada’s National Inventory Report 1990-2011: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada for natural gas combustion emission factors and grid electricity emission factors 11 ;

• Environment Canada’s National Pollutant Release Inventory for grid electricity CAC emission factors 12 .

Emissions Reductions within Sub-Sectors

The Vision Statements for each sub-sector attempt to demonstrate the impact of SDTC funding on emissions reductions. In certain sub-sectors, emissions reductions attributable to natural gas technologies are already occurring. For example, in the power generation sub-sector, the recent switch from coal to natural gas electricity generation has led to (and will lead to further) emissions reductions. However, these emission reductions cannot be attributed to SDTC funding and are therefore considered to be a part of the business as usual case. If SDTC funding resulted in the commercialization of more efficient natural gas generators, then the resulting reduction in natural gas consumption within the power generation sector could be attributed to SDTC funding. It is this type of emissions reductions that the Vision Statement attempts to quantify.

Within each sub-sector, technologies expected to lead to GHG and CAC emissions reductions were identified based on input from key stakeholders. In general, these technologies lead to GHG and CAC reductions in two ways: (1) by reducing the amount of natural gas consumed within a sub-sector through, for example, efficiency improvements; and, (2) by fuel switching to natural gas from a higher emitting fuel, such as gasoline or diesel in the transportation sub-sector.

In cases where a technology leads to reductions in natural gas consumption, the methodology used to calculate GHG and CAC reductions involves estimating a percent reduction in natural gas use attributable to that technology. Data used to calculate this percent include, for example: increase in efficiency over the business as usual technology; percentage of market where the technology is applicable; and, the market adoption rate within a sub-sector by 2030. GHG and CAC reductions are then directly proportional to the percent reduction in natural gas consumption caused by the commercialization of a particular technology.

In cases where a technology leads to fuel switching, the methodology used to calculate GHG and CAC reductions involves estimating the market uptake of the technology, which was based on input from key stakeholders. GHG and CAC reductions attributable to a particular technology are then calculated using GHG and CAC emissions reduction factors for fuel switching, for example from gasoline vehicles to natural gas vehicles.

A more detailed discussion of the technological drivers and assumptions used to calculate GHG and CAC reductions is presented below for each sub-sector.

* The GHGenius default emission factor for natural gas production, processing, and distribution in Canada was used to estimate upstream GHG and CAC emissions. This is based on current recovery from Canadian reservoirs and includes emissions from conventional, shale, and tight gas production.