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Based on the prevailing market trends and input from key stakeholders, the following Vision Statement has been derived for the renewable natural gas sub-sector in Canada.

By the year 2030, commercialization of new technologies in the renewable natural gas sub-sector in Canada will:

• achieve GHG emissions reductions of 6.7 Mt-CO 2 e per year from the business as usual emissions projection. ;

• due to data limitations, CAC emissions reductions were not calculated for the renewable natural gas sub-sector.

A graphical representation of the Vision Statement is shown below in Figure 20 for GHG emissions.

Figure 20: Renewable Natural Gas Sub-Sector Vision Statement, GHG Emissions

The amount of RNG produced in the Vision Statement scenario is based on information contained in the Biogas Association’s Canadian Biogas Study 17 , the CGA and Alberta Research Council’s Potential Production of Methane from CanadianWastes 18 , as well as input from key stakeholders. It has been assumed that in 2030, approximately 120 PJ of RNG will be produced and consumed in Canada, which is equal to 3% of Canada’s natural gas consumption and 10% of Canada’s RNG production potential (as estimated by CGA and Alberta Research Council).

GHG emissions reductions were calculated by assuming that in the absence of RNG production and combustion, conventional natural gas production and combustion would occur. Production and combustion of RNG results in 90% fewer GHG emissions than production and combustion of conventional natural gas. 19 This reduction is a result of RNG combustion leading to ‘biogenic’ (from biological materials) CO 2 emissions, which are reported as zero according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. 20

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