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Copyright © 2014 by SDTC™ Sustainable Development Business Case 27

Business as Usual Details

Business as usual GHG emissions are based on the following projections contained within the NEB Energy Future Report:

• Total fuel and electricity consumption within the transportation sub-sector;

• Breakdown of fuel consumption by vehicle/transport mode type.

In the business as usual case, GHG emissions increase from 245 Mt in 2014 to 275 Mt in 2030. Key drivers for this trend are discussed in Section 4.2.

Vision Details

GHG and CAC reductions are achieved in this sub-sector primarily through the market adoption of natural gas vehicles. Market adoption rates by transport mode used in the vision calculations are shown below in Table 13.

Table 13: Market Adoption Assumptions Used in Transportation Vision Calculations

Transportation Sub-Sector Market Adoption by 2030

Rail 40% Marine 40% Off-Road 10% On-Road Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs) 5% On-Road Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDVs) * Light (LHDV) Medium (MHDV) Heavy (HHDV)

10% 10% 25%

GHG emissions reductions were calculated based on the above market adoption rates and emissions reductions percentages arising from fuel switching to natural gas within each transport mode, which are shown below in Table 14.

Table 14: GHG Reductions Associated with Fuel Switching in Transportation Sub-Sectors

Transportation Sub-Sector GHG Emissions Reductions 16

Rail 19% Marine 14% Off-Road Vehicles 21% On-Road Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs) 16% On-Road Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDVs) Light (LHDV) Medium (MHDV) Heavy (HHDV)

21% 21% 21%

Approximately 76% of the GHG reductions in 2030 are expected to come from on-road heavy duty vehicles. The remainder of the reductions will come from on-road light duty vehicles (10%), rail (9%), marine (5%), and off-road vehicles (1%). These improvements translate to about 6.8 Mt-CO 2 e per year of total GHG emissions reduction from projected 2030 levels.

* Refer to the Glossary for more information on vehicle classes included in each sub-category of Heavy Duty Vehicles.

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