Page 31 - SD_NG_BC

Copyright © 2014 by SDTC™ Sustainable Development Business Case 25

6.4 Power Generation

Based on the prevailing market trends and input from key stakeholders, the following Vision Statement has been derived for the power generation sub-sector in Canada.

Power Generation Sub-Sector Vision Statement

By the year 2030, commercialization of new technologies in the power generation sub-sector in Canada will:

• achieve GHG emissions reductions of 6.2 Mt-CO 2 e per year from the business as usual emissions projection;

• achieve annual CAC emission reductions of 15 kt-NO x , 0.11 kt-SO x , 0.51 kt-PM, 0.047 kt-VOCs, and 6.4 kt-CO.

A graphical representation of the Vision Statement is shown in Figure 18 for GHG emissions.

Figure 18: Power Generation Sub-Sector Vision Statement, GHG Emissions

2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

65

75

Business as Usual

Power Generation

45

40

50

55

60

70

80

85

90

Business as Usual Details

Business as usual GHG emissions are based on the following projections contained within the NEB Energy Future Report:

• Natural gas consumption within the power generation sub-sector (referred to as electricity and steam generation in the NEB Report).

In the business as usual case, GHG emissions increase from 39 Mt in 2014 to 81 Mt in 2030. Key drivers for this trend are discussed in Section 4.2.

Vision Details

The vision GHG and CAC emission reductions may be achieved through technological improvements to: 1. More efficient natural gas generators;

2. Emissions control technologies – operating conditions or downstream emissions management; 3. Carbon capture and storage.

Approximately 55% of the GHG reductions in 2030 are expected to come from the use of more efficient natural gas generator technology. The remainder of the reductions will come from carbon capture and storage (45%). These improvements translate to about 6.2 Mt-CO 2 e per year of total GHG emissions reduction from projected 2030 levels.