Page 30 - SD_NG_BC

24 Downstream Natural Gas Copyright © 2014 by SDTC ™

Vision Details

The vision GHG and CAC emission reductions may be achieved through technological improvements to:

1. High efficiency industrial heating equipment (boilers/steam generation/non-steam systems); 2. Instrumentation and control; 3. Industrial CHP systems.

Note that these areas of innovation do not include changes to processes that would lead to reductions in NG consumption. It is understood that process changes can have the highest potential for reduction; however, these are considered out of scope and would be included within industry-specific SD Business Cases™.

Approximately 58% of the GHG reductions in 2030 are expected to come from high efficiency industrial heating equipment. The remainder of the reductions will come from instrumentation and control (29%) and the generation of electricity by CHP units (13%). These improvements translate to about 4.6 Mt-CO 2 e per year of total GHG emissions reduction from projected 2030 levels.

Input Data and Assumptions

Data and assumptions used to calculate GHG and CAC emission reductions are summarized in Table 10 and Table 11.

Table 10: General Data and Assumptions Used in the Industrial Vision Statement Calculations

Data Value Source

Proportion of natural gas used for process heating and steam generation

90% Input from key stakeholders. Data on industrial

natural gas consumption in Canada is limited. The usage breakdown aligns with US data, where 86% of natural gas consumed by the manufacturing industry

is used for process heat and steam 15

Proportion of natural gas used for other purposes 10%

Annual turnover rate of industrial natural gas heating/ steam generation equipment

5%

Table 11: Technology Bin Data and Assumptions Used in the Industrial Vision Statement Calculations

Technology Bin Assumption Description Value

High efficiency industrial heating equipment (boilers/steam generation/non-steam systems)

Increase in efficiency of industrial systems from these technologies, by 2030. 5%

Instrumentation and control Increase in efficiency of industrial systems from these technologies, by 2030. 2.5%

Industrial CHP systems Efficiency of commercialized CHP units in 2030. 88%

Heat to power ratio of industrial CHP units. 2

Increase in market size over business as usual due to increased CHP efficiency and lower cost.

5%