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Vision Details

The vision GHG and CAC emission reductions may be achieved through technological improvements to:

1. Natural gas heat pumps for space heating; 2. Natural gas cooling;

3. Ultra-high efficiency water heating;

4. Smart Energy Networks and advanced building control; 5. Commercial CHP systems.

Approximately 54% of the GHG reductions in 2030 are expected to come from smart energy networks and advanced building control. The remainder of the reductions will come from natural gas heat pumps for space heating (24%), generation of electricity by CHP units (17%), natural gas cooling systems (3%), and more efficient natural gas water heating appliances (2%). These improvements translate to about 4.1 Mt-CO 2 e per year of total GHG emissions reduction from projected 2030 levels.

Input Data and Assumptions

Data and assumptions used to calculate GHG and CAC emission reductions are summarized in Table 8 and Table 9.

Table 8: General Data and Assumptions Used in the Commercial Vision Statement Calculations

Data Value Source

Proportion of natural gas used for space heating 75%

Natural Resources Canada, Energy Use Data Handbook 2013.

Proportion of natural gas used for water heating 14% Proportion of natural gas used for appliances 9% Proportion of natural gas used for auxiliary equipment 2% Annual turnover rate of commercial natural gas heating equipment

5% Assumption based on residential turnover rate,

taking into consideration the lower availability of government

incentives for commercial retrofits.

Table 9: Technology Bin Data and Assumptions Used in the Commercial Vision Statement Calculations

Technology Bin Assumption Description Value

Natural gas heat pumps for space heating Coefficient of performance. 2.3

Percentage of the commercial market where natural gas heat pumps are applicable. 50% Market adoption in 2030, within the applicable market percentage above. 10% Natural gas cooling Coefficient of performance 1.7

Percentage of the commercial market where natural gas cooling is applicable. 50%

Market adoption in 2030, within the applicable market percentage above. 15% Ultra-high efficiency water heating Increase in efficiency over business as usual commercial water heaters. 10% Smart energy networks and advanced building control

Reduction in commercial natural gas consumption in 2030 due to the roll-out of these technologies.

5%

Commercial CHP systems Efficiency of commercialized CHP units in 2030. 89%

Heat to power ratio of commercial CHP units. 2

Maximum available market for commercial CHP units where GHG reductions may be achieved. Calculated as the percentage of the Canadian population living in a province with an electricity grid emission factor higher than the electricity production emission factor for CHP.

13%

Market adoption in 2030, within the available market percentage above. 35%