Page 27 - SD_NG_BC

Copyright © 2014 by SDTC™ Sustainable Development Business Case 21

6.2 Commercial

Based on the prevailing market trends and input from key stakeholders, the following Vision Statement has been derived for the commercial sub-sector in Canada.

Commercial Sub-Sector Vision Statement

By the year 2030, commercialization of new technologies in the commercial sub-sector in Canada will:

• achieve GHG emissions reductions of 4.1 Mt-CO 2 e per year from the business as usual emissions projection;

• achieve annual CAC emission reductions of 4.9 kt-NO x , 2.9 kt-SO x , 0.33 kt-PM, 0.34 kt-VOCs, and 1.2 kt-CO.

A graphical representation of the Vision Statement is shown in Figure 16 for GHG emissions.

Figure 16: Commercial Sub-Sector Vision Statement, GHG Emissions

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2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Business as Usual

Commercial

Business as Usual Details

Business as usual GHG emissions are based on the following projections contained within the NEB Energy Future Report:

• Natural gas consumption within the commercial sub-sector;

• Grid electricity consumption within the commercial sub-sector. This was included since one technology considered, commercial CHP, will offset the use of grid electricity.

In the business as usual case, GHG emissions increase from 67 Mt in 2014 to 76 Mt in 2030. Key drivers for this trend are discussed in Section 4.2.