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Vision Details

The vision GHG and CAC emission reductions may be achieved through technological improvements to: 1. Natural gas heat pumps for space heating; 2. Ultra-high efficiency water heating;

3. Residential smart energy meters/system components and data management solutions; 4. Micro-CHP systems.

Approximately 42% of the GHG reductions in 2030 are expected to come from residential smart energy meters/system components and data management solutions. The remainder of the reductions will come from the increased use of natural gas heat pumps for space heating (36%), more efficient natural gas water heating appliances (18%), and generation of electricity by micro-CHP units (4%). These improvements translate to about 2.4 Mt-CO 2 e per year of total GHG emissions reduction from projected 2030 levels.

Input Data and Assumptions

Data and assumptions used to calculate GHG and CAC emission reductions are summarized in Table 6 and Table 7.

Table 6: General Data and Assumptions Used in the Residential Vision Statement Calculations

Data Value Source

Proportion of natural gas used for space heating 71%

Natural Resources Canada, Energy Use Data Handbook 2013 13 Proportion of natural gas used for water heating 28%

Proportion of natural gas used for appliances 1.2%

Annual turnover rate of residential natural gas heating equipment

7% Statistics Canada, Households and

the Environment: Energy Use 14

Table 7: Technology Data and Assumptions Used in the Residential Vision Statement Calculations

Technology Bin Assumption Description Value

Natural gas heat pumps for space heating

Coefficient of performance. 2.3 Percentage of the residential market where natural gas heat pumps are applicable.

20%

Market adoption in 2030, within the applicable market percentage above. 20% Ultra-high efficiency water heating Increase in efficiency over business as usual residential water heaters. * 13%

Residential smart energy meters/system components and data management solutions

Reduction in residential natural gas consumption in 2030 due to the roll-out of these technologies.

2%

Micro-CHP systems Efficiency of commercialized micro-CHP units in 2030. 86%

Heat to power ratio of micro-CHP units. 2 Maximum available market for micro-CHP units where GHG reductions may be achieved. Calculated as the percentage of the Canadian population living in a province with an electricity grid emission factor higher than the electricity production emission factor for micro-CHP.

13%

Market adoption in 2030, within the available market percentage above. 5%

* This is an estimate of the absolute increase in residential water heating efficiency. It is an aggregate estimate that takes into account efficiency improvements in water heaters, as well as increased use of natural gas heat pumps for water heating.