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16 Downstream Natural Gas Copyright © 2014 by SDTC ™

6 Industry Vision

The Vision Statement developed for the downstream natural gas sector assesses environmental benefits associated with the commercialization of new technologies within the sector. Technologies taken into consideration include those identified during the SOI analysis in Section 5, as well as technologies identified by key stakeholders.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air contaminant (CAC) emissions are the primary environmental impacts associated with the downstream natural gas sector. Therefore, GHG and CAC emissions reductions are the focus of the Vision Statement and have been assessed quantitatively.

Note that some of the technologies considered may provide benefits other than GHG and CAC emissions reductions. For example, some CHP systems in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors are able to provide heat and power during electrical grid outages thereby increasing supply resiliency.*

Note on Soil and Water Impacts

The Vision Statement focuses on GHG and CAC emissions, as they result in the direct environmental impacts associated with the downstream natural gas sector. Direct impacts on soil and water quality are more evident during natural gas extraction (e.g., hydraulic fracturing), which is considered outside the scope of this study.

Impacts on soil and water quality resulting from activities in the downstream natural gas sector are typically indirect. For example, NO x and SO x emissions contribute to acid rain, which in turn impacts soil and water quality. Therefore, the CAC emissions reductions achieved in the Vision Statement may result in environmental benefits to soil and water quality. However, an attempt to quantify these benefits has not been undertaken, due to the high degree of uncertainty associated with the quantification methodologies and data sources.

Downstream Natural Gas Vision Statement

Based on the prevailing market trends and input from key stakeholders, the following Vision Statement has been derived for the downstream natural gas sector in Canada. The goal year is 2030, representing a 16 year timeframe over which technology innovation is expected. This was chosen to be consistent with the time required to realize major shifts in practices, attitudes and technologies within the sector.

By the year 2030, commercialization of new technologies in the downstream natural gas sector in Canada will:

• achieve GHG emissions reductions of 30.7 Mt-CO 2 e per year from the business as usual emissions projection;

• achieve annual CAC emission reductions of 86 kt-NO x , 17 kt-SO x , 3.2 kt-PM, 6.9 kt-VOCs, and 140 kt-CO.

* For CHP systems to operating during grid outages, they must be capable of operating in ‘island mode’. The design elements necessary so that a CHP system can be isolated from the grid are system-specific and include additional controls and switchgear.